Why this site exists
Most surf forecasts start from the same place: a global wave model, run on a grid so coarse that your whole county is one data point, interpolated toward shore. That works fine in deep water. It falls apart in the last few miles, where the bottom takes over — the sandbars, shoals, and inlets that decide whether a 4ft swell turns into a peeling wave at your spot or closes out down the beach.
pinpointsurf runs its own high-resolution nearshore wave model. It takes the offshore swell, adds local wind and tides, and works out what actually happens as that energy crosses the shelf and hits the coastline. The point is to answer the question every surfer actually has: is my spot the call today, or is it worth the drive somewhere else?
The bottom matters (more than you'd think)
Getting the nearshore right meant getting the seafloor right, and the public bathymetry data had problems — in one spot off Corolla, the only available survey dated to the late 1800s (yes, you read that right). So instead of leaning on any single off-the-shelf dataset, the model runs on my own blend of depth models, built from the best available source for each stretch of coast. It's the best I can do short of towing a sonar rig up and down the coast — which honestly sounds like fun, but I have a day job.
When it's wrong
Sometimes the forecast will miss. Every wave model is a prediction, and when the global model gets a storm's track or strength wrong offshore, that error flows downstream to the beach — bad data in, bad data out. What I can promise is that I check the model constantly, against NOAA buoys and against my own sessions, and after big swells I write up how it did on the blog — including the misses. If the forecast blew it at your spot, email me the spot and the date. Those reports have driven real improvements to the model.
How to use it
Tap any spot on the map to pull up the forecast for that exact stretch of beach — surf height, quality, swell, wind, and tides, all on one chart. Surf height is based on the larger set waves you can expect every few minutes; some waves will be bigger, most will be smaller. Use the layers menu to switch between surf, wind, and swell views.
Who's behind it
Just me — Eric. I surf the same Wilmington-area beaches this model covers, and I built pinpointsurf because I wanted a forecast I could actually trust for them. Coverage today runs from South Carolina through New Jersey, plus Puerto Rico. I'd rather get this coastline right than half-cover ten of them.
If you spot a problem, have an idea, or just want to tell me the model nailed it (or didn't), I want to hear it.